Insights
From Santa to the Easter Bunny: Rally Momentum or Melt-Up Zone Ahead?
"Sell in May and Go Away.” — An old investment adage with roots dating back to 18th century England. Also known as the “Halloween Indicator.” The Santa Claus rally that started in October 2023 and saw the S&P 500 surge by 14% in last year’s final two...
Looking for a Melt-Up, a Meltdown, or Just a Solid Year? We Like Door No. 3!
“We’re runnin’ outta timeSo, tonight we’re gonna party like it’s 1999.” – Lyrics from Prince’s song and album of the same name, “1999” The inspiration for famous singer Prince in producing his hit song “1999” emanated from a documentary he saw about Nostradamus, a...
Can the 2023 “Goldilocks” Economy Continue in 2024?
The numbers are in—no more guessing about growth levels or inflation rates for 2023. That is all in the rearview mirror (not counting upcoming adjustments to historical gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates). Many are suggesting the U.S. economy is experiencing a...
Solid Results and Finish to 2023. Back to Normal Is Our Theme for 2024.
Our theme for the equity market as we approached 2023 was: 2023 is likely to be the inverse of 2022. We’re deeply gratified that this became reality. Unlike many, we expected solid results for stocks this past year, and that is exactly what investors got. This cheer...
More to Celebrate Than Fear as We Head Into 2024
“By rationally looking at long-term trends instead of viscerally reacting to the horror story of the day, you’ll see that there’s much more to celebrate than to mourn.” — The Wall Street Journal, excerpt from “For the New Year, Say No to Negativity,” Dec. 27, 2019...
Why We’re Cautious Near Term and Constructive Longer Term. The Key Is Rates.
As we near year-end, we are cautious about S&P 500 returns in the near term. Our S&P 500 targets for year-end 2023 and mid- to late-year 2024 remain the same at 4,500 and 4,800 to 5,000, respectively. Clearly, these are relatively constructive figures. Our...